Whisky Distributor Case Study
This case involves a real-life consulting assignment with a manufacturer and distributor of whisky. This is a “conceptual” case where problem identification and idea generation are tested.
Background
The client was a first mover in promoting imported whisky in bars, discos and karaoke clubs, a fast-growing business in an emerging market. They experienced tremendous success with over 30% annual growth by partnering with key outlets, offering sponsorships and rebates for exclusive sales. However, growth has slowed to 10% per year and profit margins are declining.
Objective: Understand the reasons for the slowdown and then explore strategic options to rebuild growth.
First question: What information would you require to help explain the slowing down of growth?
The Good Answer:
- The growth of the bar/disco channel is peaking; the number of new outlets is no longer increasing.
- The whisky category has reached a high "share of throat" in this channel and is unlikely to grow further through penetration.
- Competitors saw the opportunity and started to invest, eroding some of the client's market share.
The Excellent Answer: (All of the above, plus)
- The client's advertising campaign is 5 years old, and the brand image is aging, making it hard to recruit new, younger consumers.
- There's a lack of aspiration for consumers to upgrade to more premium products from the client.
- The category life cycle is short; as the initial batch of consumers ages, they go to bars less frequently and are leaving the market.
Second question: What is driving profitability down?
The Good Answer:
- Increased competition has driven prices down and limited room for price increases.
- Competition has driven up trade marketing costs, as outlet owners have more bargaining power and demand more sponsorships.
- Imported goods are subject to currency fluctuations.
The Excellent Answer: (All of the above, plus)
- As the business expanded, the client partnered with smaller, weaker outlets that provided a lower return on investment.
Third question: What are the potential strategic options?
Here are some options that can be explored:
- Revitalize the brand with a new campaign to improve competitiveness.
- Premiumize the market and encourage consumers to up-trade to higher-value products.
- Seek opportunities in less competitive rural areas.
- Explore new channels, such as in-home or restaurant consumption.
- Innovate on delivery to create a competitive advantage.
- Improve the outlet selection process to focus on high-return partners.
Sample Guesstimate
A washing machine manufacturing company wants to enter the Indian Market. Estimate the number of washing machines they would sell, assuming their market share to be 2%?
Solution
We'll approach this from the demand side, calculating sales from both the replacement market (people replacing old machines) and the growth market (first-time buyers).
Step 1: Estimate Existing Machines (Replacement Market)
Total Population: 120 crores
Avg. Family Size: 4
Total Families: 120 / 4 = 30 crores
Assume total penetration leads to ~8.37 crore machines in India.
Average lifespan of a washing machine: 8 years
Annual replacement market: 8.37 crore / 8 ≈ 1.05 crore machines/year
Client's Market Share: 2%
Sales from replacements = 1.05 crore * 2% = 2.1 lakhs
Step 2: Estimate New Buyers (Growth Market)
Assume market growth rate: 10% per year
New customers = 8.37 crore * 10% = 0.837 crore new buyers/year
Client's Market Share: 2%
Sales to new customers = 0.837 crore * 2% ≈ 1.67 lakhs
Final Estimation
Total machines sold = 2.1 lakhs (replacement) + 1.67 lakhs (new) = 3.77 lakhs
Common Data for Guesstimates
A quick reference for common demographic and economic data points used in guesstimates for India and the world.
Population
Location | Population |
---|---|
World | 8 billion |
India | 1.4 billion (140 Cr) |
USA | 330 million |
Canada | 4 Cr |
Delhi | 3 Cr |
Bangalore | 1 Cr |
Demographics
Metric | India | World (Approx.) |
---|---|---|
Urban / Rural Split | 30% / 70% | 55% / 45% |
Age Split (0-14) | ~25% | ~25% |
Age Split (15-59) | ~65% | ~60% |
Age Split (60+) | ~10% | ~15% |
Gender Split | ~50% Male / 50% Female |
Income & Occupation (India)
Category | Segment | Percentage |
---|---|---|
Urban Income | Lower | 40% |
Urban Income | Middle | 40% |
Urban Income | Higher | 20% |
Rural Income | BPL | 20% |
Rural Income | Lower | 30% |
Rural Income | Middle | 40% |
Rural Income | Upper | 10% |
Occupation | Agriculture/Fishery | 40% |
Occupation | Industry | 25% |
Occupation | Services | 35% |