Whisky Distributor Case Study

This case involves a real-life consulting assignment with a manufacturer and distributor of whisky. This is a “conceptual” case where problem identification and idea generation are tested.

Background

The client was a first mover in promoting imported whisky in bars, discos and karaoke clubs, a fast-growing business in an emerging market. They experienced tremendous success with over 30% annual growth by partnering with key outlets, offering sponsorships and rebates for exclusive sales. However, growth has slowed to 10% per year and profit margins are declining.

Objective: Understand the reasons for the slowdown and then explore strategic options to rebuild growth.

First question: What information would you require to help explain the slowing down of growth?

The Good Answer:

  • The growth of the bar/disco channel is peaking; the number of new outlets is no longer increasing.
  • The whisky category has reached a high "share of throat" in this channel and is unlikely to grow further through penetration.
  • Competitors saw the opportunity and started to invest, eroding some of the client's market share.

The Excellent Answer: (All of the above, plus)

  • The client's advertising campaign is 5 years old, and the brand image is aging, making it hard to recruit new, younger consumers.
  • There's a lack of aspiration for consumers to upgrade to more premium products from the client.
  • The category life cycle is short; as the initial batch of consumers ages, they go to bars less frequently and are leaving the market.

Second question: What is driving profitability down?

The Good Answer:

  • Increased competition has driven prices down and limited room for price increases.
  • Competition has driven up trade marketing costs, as outlet owners have more bargaining power and demand more sponsorships.
  • Imported goods are subject to currency fluctuations.

The Excellent Answer: (All of the above, plus)

  • As the business expanded, the client partnered with smaller, weaker outlets that provided a lower return on investment.

Third question: What are the potential strategic options?

Here are some options that can be explored:

  • Revitalize the brand with a new campaign to improve competitiveness.
  • Premiumize the market and encourage consumers to up-trade to higher-value products.
  • Seek opportunities in less competitive rural areas.
  • Explore new channels, such as in-home or restaurant consumption.
  • Innovate on delivery to create a competitive advantage.
  • Improve the outlet selection process to focus on high-return partners.

Sample Guesstimate

A washing machine manufacturing company wants to enter the Indian Market. Estimate the number of washing machines they would sell, assuming their market share to be 2%?

Solution

We'll approach this from the demand side, calculating sales from both the replacement market (people replacing old machines) and the growth market (first-time buyers).

Step 1: Estimate Existing Machines (Replacement Market)

Total Population: 120 crores

Avg. Family Size: 4

Total Families: 120 / 4 = 30 crores

Assume total penetration leads to ~8.37 crore machines in India.


Average lifespan of a washing machine: 8 years

Annual replacement market: 8.37 crore / 8 ≈ 1.05 crore machines/year

Client's Market Share: 2%

Sales from replacements = 1.05 crore * 2% = 2.1 lakhs

Step 2: Estimate New Buyers (Growth Market)

Assume market growth rate: 10% per year

New customers = 8.37 crore * 10% = 0.837 crore new buyers/year

Client's Market Share: 2%

Sales to new customers = 0.837 crore * 2% ≈ 1.67 lakhs

Final Estimation

Total machines sold = 2.1 lakhs (replacement) + 1.67 lakhs (new) = 3.77 lakhs

Common Data for Guesstimates

A quick reference for common demographic and economic data points used in guesstimates for India and the world.

Population

LocationPopulation
World8 billion
India1.4 billion (140 Cr)
USA330 million
Canada4 Cr
Delhi3 Cr
Bangalore1 Cr

Demographics

MetricIndiaWorld (Approx.)
Urban / Rural Split30% / 70%55% / 45%
Age Split (0-14)~25%~25%
Age Split (15-59)~65%~60%
Age Split (60+)~10%~15%
Gender Split~50% Male / 50% Female

Income & Occupation (India)

CategorySegmentPercentage
Urban IncomeLower40%
Urban IncomeMiddle40%
Urban IncomeHigher20%
Rural IncomeBPL20%
Rural IncomeLower30%
Rural IncomeMiddle40%
Rural IncomeUpper10%
OccupationAgriculture/Fishery40%
OccupationIndustry25%
OccupationServices35%